Touchdowns are what every fantasy football player is chasing. Touchdowns win championships, but are so hard to come by. You have 16 games with a player and have extremely low percentages finding a player that is going to come up big week in and week out. So what is that number that you look for? I believe that number is 10 TD’s. You want your #1 WR to be able to get to 10. That is more than half the games…but you almost certainly will get a game or two where “your guy” scores multiple touchdowns. So now your top guy doesn’t even score in half the games. Weekly consistency is a major thing to look at. It’s great to get that guy that can score huge one week, but do you do it at the risk of that same player giving you 2 catches for 13 yards the following week. Find and go after a #1 WR that will give you a great chance to reach 10 TD’s and also produce most every week. After that look at the numbers and play the odds and try to find a #2 WR that gives you a decent chance to reach those same numbers.

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Did you know that ONLY four current NFL players UNDER six feet tall have scored 10 touchdowns in a single season. One actually happened last season…Wes Welker. Another guy that did it was Steve Smith back in his prime with 12 touchdowns. The other two guys you will never guess, so I will just give them to you. Lance Moore in 2008 and Santana Moss in 2003 both had 10 touchdowns. This tells me to stay away from the little guys! Unless they are your #3 WR’s.
So if you are looking for a #1 WR that is likely to get you at least 10 TD’s you need to GO BIG OR GO HOME. Here are four guys that are being drafted as #1 WR and should NOT be. Antonio Brown, who had a career year last year with only 8 touchdowns. DeSean Jackson who has scored 9 receiving touchdowns in two different seasons, but is not likely to approach that this year. Randall Cobb who has topped out at 8 and Wes Welker who I do not trust to stay healthy, but did top 10 last season.
Of current NFL players there is a total of 46 seasons of at least 10 TD’s. At a glance that seems like a lot, so there should be no issues finding a great wideout right? But take a closer look. Of those 46 only twelve players have done it more than 1 time. So now you are only down twelve guys that would consider a #1 WR. Now let’s narrow that down a little more. Three of those twelve are no longer in their primes and have next to no chance in finding the endzone 10 times in a single season again. So now you are down to just 9 guys that have done it more than once and are still in a situation that they can do it again. These guys are Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Marquis Colston, Eric Decker, AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, Demaryous Thomas, and Larry Fitzgerald. I do believe White and Colston will also not see double digit touchdowns again, but if they did I would not be completely shocked.

Let’s go back to the height factor again. There are 28 players (current) that have scored ten or more touchdowns. As I said early 4 of those guys are less than 6 feet tall. Six more at listed at exactly 6 feet tall. That leaves 18 guys at 6’ 1” or taller who have scored double digit TD’s. These are the guys over the years that I tend to go after. If you are in a PPR league obviously the strategy is going to be different. But if you are in a touchdown heavy scoring system, like I am, than these are the guys to target. Look at younger players with similar size and skill sets in order to come up with the next wave up guys who will get in the end zone at rates.

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